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CaddieMasterNews
Let’s Get Objective About Sandbagging

Being a computer-type and being responsible for the scoring and
handicapping for a small group of golfing buddies as well as
being the creator of CaddieMasterPro, I take a special interest
in handicapping. Or, more particularly, in analyzing the
feasibility of the net scores that are posted in “friendly”
competitions. You know the scores I mean – the ones that result
in the lucky owners winning all the money!

A handicap is a funny thing. Everyone wants a low handicap after
a round has been played and while refreshments are being consumed
in the clubhouse. Hey, a falling handicap is proof that
improvements are being made, right?

But everyone wants a high handicap as they stand at the first tee
negotiating the “arrangements” for the day’s competition. That’s
right, “negotiating”. A handicap should not be an approximate
value that is adjusted to suit the situation. A program like
CaddieMasterPro should be used to compute an accurate value and
negotiations should not be a part of the exercise.

But I’ll quit whining about sandbaggers just long enough to do
some objective analysis of extremely “good” scores in the heat
of competition. For evidence, I submit the following table
compliments of the USGA.

ODDS OF SHOOTING AN EXCEPTIONAL TOURNAMENT SCORE from the USGA

What does this table really mean? Well, to begin, a player’s
differential is the difference between the adjusted gross score
and the course rating, multiplying the difference by 113 and
dividing the resulting figure by the course slope. Sound
complicated? I guess it is a bit, but for the purposes of a quick
analysis and after removing all the jargon, it is pretty close
to a player’s score less the course par.

For example, a score of 92 on a par 72 course would be about 20,
but after converting to an adjusted gross score, using a typical
course rating and course slope, the value of 20 is more likely
to be something like 18. The harder the course, the lower the
actual differential.

Now, the Net Differential used in the USGA table, is the
difference between the differential just described and a player’s
Handicap Index. The table shows just how likely it is that a
golfer will score under his handicap in a competitive round of
golf. And guess what? – it isn’t too likely! Handicaps are set up
such that IT IS DIFFICULT FOR SOMEONE TO SHOOT TO HIS/HER HANDICAP.
It should only happen once in every 5 or 6 rounds. Any player that
accomplishes this feat should be very pleased with his/her
performance.

Let’s deal with an example. The odds of a player with a Course
Handicap of 14, beating the differential by eight strokes (that is,
of shooting a net score of about 64 for a net differential of -8)
once are 1,138 to 1. Put another way, the average players posts 21
scores a year. That means that to score this well, assuming the
Handicap Index is correct, would take 54 years of golf to do it
once. The odds of a player beating his Course Handicap by eight
strokes twice are only 14,912 to 1. That’s 710 years of golf for
the average player – a bit of a stretch to say the least. Yet,
scores like that are not uncommon for golfers who submit an
approximate handicap.

So, the next time you hear this – “Hmm, I don’t keep accurate
records but I haven’t played much lately and the last time I did
play I shot a 96 so just put me down for a 24 handicap” – you
should raise the red flag. When he posts his “career round”,
whip out the above table and advise him to buy several lottery
tickets on his way home from the course because this is obviously
his “lucky” day.

Brian Yager

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Thank you for letting us serve you,
Brian & Dre
CaddieMasterNews Team

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